Delta Read · Week of August 10, 2026 — Four Sessions Lifted the Offer, One Didn't — and That One Was Thursday

A note before this week's read: from here on, these are the full-size NQ and ES rather than the micro MNQ and MES. That is where the institutional order flow actually trades — ES turns roughly the same number of contracts as MES at nearly twelve times the notional — and it is the tape I watch when I trade. The price levels are unchanged in practice: the contracts track the same index, so everything here maps straight onto a micro chart. Where past reads showed micro contract counts, these are full-size counts, and last week's numbers are not directly comparable to the ones below.

Last week's forward watch asked for something specific: NQ closing a full session above the monthly bid shelf at 30,259 with net delta positive — buyers lifting the offer through that level, not price tagging it on fading sell flow. That condition couldn't be evaluated cleanly from the tape, so I'm picking up the thread qualitatively. What the week showed was a market that got close — NQ touched 30,283 on Friday — but never settled above 30,259 on a full session close. The prior offer shelves broke cleanly to the upside on both instruments, and both lines in the sand held. The bias from last week resolved mixed: price moved, but the order flow behind the biggest day of the week told a different story than the candle did.

NQ closed Friday at 30,154 — up 314.5 points on the week from the prior close of 29,839.5. ES closed at 7,802.5, up 25.25 points from 7,777.25. The quick version: NQ is pressing into a 40-point gap below a 99% conviction bid shelf, and whether buyers can close a session above it with genuine positive delta is the only question that matters this week.

August Has Been Running Two Different Tapes

Month-to-date, NQ's cumulative delta sits at +31,934 — buyers have been lifting the offer more than sellers have been hitting the bid, and price has followed, running from the August low of 28,313.5 to this week's high of 30,283. That's a 1,969.5-point range on the month, and the delta lean has been genuinely constructive for most of it.

ES tells the opposite story. Month-to-date cumulative delta is −24,888 — sellers have been leaning on the bid all month while price has still managed to grind higher, from the August low of 7,542.75 to this week's high of 7,838.5. That's a 295.75-point range on the month, and the delta has been running red almost the entire way up. A negative cumulative on its own isn't a distribution signal — selling often arrives with more urgency than the passive buying that floats price higher, so some negative lean on an up-move is unremarkable. But the lean in ES is running heavier than the NQ picture, and the divergence between the two instruments is worth keeping in front of you.

The split is the story of August so far: NQ's order flow has been backing the move; ES's has been skeptical of it. When two instruments in the same complex run that kind of divergence for two-plus weeks, it tends to resolve toward one of them rather than simply persist.

Last Week, Up Close

Monday and Tuesday set the tone. NQ posted +5,648 delta on Monday — the week's largest single-session print — even as price closed down 87 points on the day. The buying was there; it just couldn't hold the gains. Tuesday added another +3,836, again with price closing lower, down 117.75 points. Two sessions of genuine bid-lifting, two red candles. The market was absorbing supply, not running from it.

Wednesday was the first close in the green: +148 points on +2,386 delta. Modest, but clean — price and delta moving in the same direction for the first time all week.

Then Thursday happened. NQ put up its biggest price gain of the week — +389.25 points, closing at 30,214.25 — on the only negative-delta session of the week: −2,151. Sellers were hitting the bid while price ripped higher. That's the session to watch on the chart. It has the shape of short covering or passive absorption at the offer, not fresh demand lifting the tape. Thursday's high was 30,272.75, and NQ sold 58.5 points off it to close — not a dramatic fade, but the delta behind that candle doesn't inspire confidence in the level.

Friday gave back 56.75 points on +3,041 delta — a mild positive-delta pullback, which is the better kind of red candle to see after a suspect up-day.

ES ran a nearly inverted script. Four of five sessions closed with negative delta — Monday (−2,385), Tuesday (−8,210), Wednesday (−8,213), and Friday (−8,051). The largest single-session delta print on ES was Wednesday's −8,213, the week's most aggressive bid-hitting. Thursday was the lone exception: +5,146 delta on a +55.25-point close — the one session where ES and NQ agreed. Every other day, ES was leaning on the bid while NQ was lifting the offer. That's not a contradiction you can paper over; it's the divergence that's been running all month, compressed into a single week.

Levels I'm Watching

These come from our conviction* zones — persistent order flow at specific prices, not lines drawn freehand.

NQ conviction zones

Zone	Price	Read
Re-offer	29,877 (29,876–29,879)	Supply shelf — 77% conviction.
Re-offer	29,739 (29,736–29,742)	Supply shelf — 94% conviction.
Bid	30,194 (30,194–30,195)	Demand cluster — 99% conviction.
Bid	29,981 (29,977–29,985)	Demand cluster — 100% conviction.
Line in the sand	29,534	Last week's low — losing it is where I'd step back and reassess the bounce.

NQ has four levels in the signal set. Three sit below the current close of 30,154, one sits above. The first thing overhead is the weekly bid shelf at 30,194 — just 40 points above Friday's close, carrying 99% conviction. That's the level price ran to on Thursday (high of 30,272.75) and couldn't close above. Below the close, the nearest support is the weekly bid shelf at 29,981 — 173 points down, 100% conviction, the 29,977–29,985 zone. That's the floor I'd want to see hold on any pullback. Deeper support sits at the weekly offer shelf at 29,877 (277 points below, 77% conviction) and the weekly offer shelf at 29,739 (415 points below, 94% conviction) — both below price, both former resistance that price has already cleared.

ES conviction zones

Zone	Price	Read
Re-offer	7,819 (7,819–7,820)	Supply shelf — 85% conviction.
Re-offer	7,765 (7,765–7,766)	Supply shelf — 63% conviction.
Bid	7,805 (7,805–7,808)	Demand cluster — 57% conviction.
Bid	7,778 (7,778–7,779)	Demand cluster — 63% conviction.
Line in the sand	7,739	Last week's low — losing it is where I'd step back and reassess the bounce.

ES has a tighter picture. Two levels above the close of 7,802.5, two below. The first thing overhead is the weekly bid shelf at 7,805 — just 2 points above Friday's close, 57% conviction. That's essentially at price. Above that, the weekly offer shelf at 7,819 sits 16 points up, carrying 85% conviction — the stronger of the two overhead levels. Below the close, the nearest support is the weekly bid shelf at 7,778, 24 points down at 63% conviction. The weekly offer shelf at 7,765 sits 38 points below at 63% conviction — former resistance, now potential support.

The structure picture: NQ is pressing into a 40-point gap below a near-perfect conviction shelf. ES has no such gap — its first overhead level is 2 points away. The one thing I need to see this week: a full session on NQ where price closes above 30,194 with net delta positive — buyers lifting the offer through that shelf, not price floating on fading sell flow. Thursday showed us what the wrong version looks like.

On the Calendar

The scheduled risk worth timing around this week:

• Thursday, August 20 — Initial Jobless Claims, 8:30 AM ET. A routine weekly print most of the time, but an elevated reading can thin the book and widen ranges around the number. The tape usually goes quiet into 8:30 and gaps on the release.

One event this week, and it lands at 8:30 AM ET.

Bottom Line

NQ is long-biased into the week of August 17 while the 29,981 bid shelf holds — four positive-delta sessions built a foundation, and the close at 30,154 puts price within 40 points of the 30,194 shelf. The condition that would confirm the move is a full session close above 30,194 on positive delta; without it, Thursday's negative-delta rip stays the dominant read on that level. ES is the tell if the thesis softens: four negative-delta sessions on the week and a cumulative monthly lean that's been running against the price move all August — if ES starts losing the 7,778 bid on rising sell delta, the NQ picture comes into question regardless of what the candles look like.

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* Conviction % — how one-sided the order flow was at that price. 100% means it traded essentially one direction; 50% means buyers and sellers fought it to a draw. It's a read on agreement, not size — a decisive level can still be a thin one.

* Delta means raw tick delta — executed buy volume minus sell volume, straight off the tape.

* NQ / ES are the full-size E-mini Nasdaq-100 and S&P 500 futures. We read the full-size contracts because that's where the institutional order flow trades; the delta and volume figures here are full-size contract counts. If you trade the micros (MNQ / MES), the price levels map across one-for-one — they track the same index.

Delta Reads are my own read of the order flow — informational only, not financial advice and not a recommendation to buy or sell anything. Trading futures is not suitable for all persons: it carries a substantial risk of loss, and you can lose more than your initial investment. This is my interpretation of the data and it can contain errors — in the data, in the analysis, or both. Do your own due diligence and trade your own plan.